South Carolina’s land market is facing a severe inventory shortage, exposing the limits of a system that once relied heavily on off-market transactions. Nicholas Ardis, a land professional with National Land Realty who has specialized in acreage sales for a decade, has seen his active listings drop from 40–50 properties during the pandemic to just four or five today.
This scarcity is not the result of dwindling demand. Instead, it is a direct consequence of the off-market dealmaking that defined the COVID-19 land rush, and it is now reshaping how buyers, sellers, and agents operate across the state.
The Off-Market Effect
During the early years of the pandemic, South Carolina’s land market experienced a surge in both activity and prices. Property values jumped from their usual 3% annual appreciation to 25–26% yearly increases, bringing the state’s market in line with national trends for the first time in decades.
Ardis recalls that at the start of COVID, he regularly carried 40 to 50 listings. That number has since collapsed. The change, he says, is not due to a lack of buyer interest, but to the way land professionals operated during the boom. Off-market deals became the norm, with agents relying on personal networks to match buyers and sellers before properties ever reached public listings.
“We were able to do a large number of transactions off-market because we could just make a call to one of our friends and say, ‘Hey, you’ve got a buyer looking for this. Do you have anything?’” Ardis says.
This approach was so efficient that it quickly drained the pool of available properties. Over the next two years, agents moved nearly all inventory through private channels, leaving little for the open market. Now, with those easy deals exhausted, fewer properties are available both on and off the market. Ardis notes, “There aren’t as many deals that can be put together off market, and I’ve seen that translate into a lack of inventory on the market as well.”
Market Correction on the Horizon
As the inventory shortage drags on, Ardis sees a correction coming, driven by unrealistic pricing among sellers. Many owners, influenced by the high asking prices they see in neighboring listings, have set their expectations far above what buyers are willing to pay.
“A lot of sellers will end up putting things up at a crazy high price, and now buyers just think, ‘Oh, this is what things are worth,’ because everything they see is at that higher value, when in actuality, those pieces are only on the market and are not selling,” Ardis explains.
This disconnect is creating confusion and inefficiency. Some buyers avoid fairly priced properties, assuming something must be wrong if a listing is below the inflated norm. Meanwhile, overpriced land sits unsold for months. Ardis expects that in the next six months, many agents who currently have inventory will lose their listings, not because of successful sales, but because sellers will pull properties that failed to attract offers at unrealistic prices.
“There’s going to be a big shift from a lot of agents who have inventory now are going to lose it, and I don’t think that’s going to be from sales,” Ardis predicts. “It’s going to be because they did not have the property priced accurately.”
Geographic Advantages
Despite these challenges, South Carolina remains attractive to buyers because of its location and infrastructure. Columbia, the state capital, sits at the intersection of three major interstate highways, offering quick access to both the coast and the mountains. This centrality has driven industrial development, which in turn has created demand for rural land as companies and workers seek space outside urban centers.
“Columbia is one of only a few cities that have three major interstates literally surrounding the city,” Ardis says. This network supports economic growth and makes rural land accessible to a wide range of buyers.
Water access is another advantage. While many western states face chronic water shortages, South Carolina has abundant water resources, including rivers and wetlands. “We don’t have those issues. We have almost too much water with swamps and things of that nature,” Ardis notes.
Buyer Behavior and Investment Trends
Rising interest rates have had a pronounced effect on smaller land buyers – typically those looking for parcels under $250,000. For these buyers, higher borrowing costs can make the difference between moving forward and stepping back.
“The rates are going to be a lot more impactful on the smaller buyers, sub $150,000–$200,000, maybe $250,000 type buyers,” Ardis says.
Larger investors, by contrast, often use financing not out of necessity, but as a strategic choice. They prefer to keep cash available for other investments, using loans to acquire land when the return on alternative investments exceeds the cost of borrowing. “The only reason they’re financing is that the opportunity cost is greater for them if they don’t,” Ardis explains.
Stock market volatility also plays a role in driving land purchases. When equities are unstable, some investors shift funds into land, viewing it as a tangible asset that offers both security and potential for appreciation. “When things are extremely volatile, especially in a series of losses, some folks will bail and try to get into a more hard asset,” Ardis says. Land offers a sense of permanence and utility that appeals to those seeking stability.
The Specialization Factor
One persistent challenge in the land market is agents working outside their area of expertise. Land sales require a different skill set than residential or commercial transactions, from understanding soil types and access rights to evaluating timber value and development potential.
Ardis, who holds the Accredited Land Consultant (ALC) designation, emphasizes the need for specialization. He points out that inexperienced agents are easy to spot: “It’s very easy to tell that they are not experts when you look at their listings that will have one picture on 100 acres, and that’s a picture of the GIS aerial.”
Even as a land specialist, Ardis relies on residential agents when buying a home, recognizing that different property types require different knowledge. “When I purchased my house, I had a residential agent help me because I was buying a residence, I was not buying raw land,” he says.
Timber Market Pressures
Certain segments of the land market face unique headwinds. Timber tracts, once a mainstay for investors, have become harder to sell due to the closure of several mills across South Carolina. With fewer mills competing to buy timber, prices have dropped, reducing the appeal of these properties for investors who depend on regular harvest income.
“We’ve had several mills in the state shut down, and so that, of course, has allowed the fewer mills that remain to pay lower prices,” Ardis says. As a result, both pulpwood and solid timber prices have fallen, making it harder to justify the purchase price of timberland based on expected returns.
Looking Forward
Despite the current shortage of available land and the pricing disconnect, Ardis sees opportunities for buyers willing to improve raw acreage. Simple upgrades – such as building internal roads, improving drainage, securing septic feasibility, or adding wildlife food plots – can boost a property’s value by making it more useful and accessible.
“You can make the opportunity anywhere if you’re willing to put some work into the property,” Ardis says. Improvements that enhance usability often translate into higher resale prices and faster sales, especially as buyers become more discerning about what they want from rural land.
For those seeking passive investments, proximity to population centers remains critical. Land near cities or major highways tends to hold its value better and attract more interest, especially from buyers seeking convenience or future development potential. “Those that don’t want to do any work or put any extra money in, then you’re going to simply want to be as close as you can to any of the big population centers,” Ardis advises.
The South Carolina land market is likely to see a gradual pricing correction as sellers adjust expectations and overpriced listings leave the market. As this adjustment unfolds, inventory may begin to recover, opening the door to more balanced transactions. Buyers and sellers who approach the market with realistic expectations and a willingness to add value will be best positioned to capitalize on the next phase of opportunity in South Carolina land.
