Chicago’s housing shortage has reached a critical point, with developers abandoning the city and construction activity dropping from over 60 active cranes a decade ago toles than three today. Against this backdrop, David Wilts, founder and CEO of Digital Masterplanning, is taking an unconventional approach to address what he calls “the most difficult time to build since World War Two.”
Working on the ambitious 1.4 million square foot Woodlawn Central development on Chicago’s South Side, Wilts is pioneering a data-driven methodology that challenges traditional cost estimation practices while tackling the fundamental question: why can’t Chicago build affordable housing without subsidies?
The Data Problem Behind Housing Solutions
The housing crisis in Chicago isn’t just about supply and demand, it’s about the lack of reliable data to understand and solve the problem. “The data is bad for all,” Wilts states bluntly, describing his frustration with the information available to developers and policymakers.
This data gap became apparent when Wilts reached out to DePaul University’s Center for Housing Studies to understand how they calculated Chicago’s housing shortage. “I wanted to figure out how they got that number and where the data is coming from. And, oh, by the way, do we have any data on how many entitlements were sought and were never granted? How much entitlement costs for planned developments? How much time does it take? What’s the cost per unit for the zoning and entitlement process? There’s no data anywhere for any of this. Geoff Smith and the team did a great job arriving at the 126,000 unit shortage, but we could all use more contextual data.”
This absence of comprehensive data makes it nearly impossible to develop evidence-based solutions to the housing crisis. Without understanding the true costs and timelines of development, both public and private sector stakeholders are operating without clear information.
The Perfect Storm Against Development
Multiple factors have converged to create what Wilts describes as unprecedented challenges for developers. “It’s like a perfect storm to not build,” he explains, citing tariffs, supply chain disruptions, immigration labor concerns, high capital costs, and complex entitlement processes.
The situation is compounded by a troubling trend among experienced developers. “With very few exceptions, all of the other developers in the city that have been developing for decades more than I have, they’ve all stopped building in Chicago in the last decade,” Wilts notes. “If they don’t build, all their existing assets are making way more money.”
This creates a cycle where reduced construction activity threatens the institutional knowledge and trade expertise that makes Chicago’s construction industry competitive. “Chicago has some of the best concrete subcontractors in the world. No other city can build a slab a week like we can, but if we don’t have enough volume of work, that expertise and institutional knowledge will disappear.”
Cost Management Through Quantity Surveying
At the heart of Wilts’ approach is a fundamental rethinking of how construction costs are estimated and managed. Drawing from his experience overseeing hundreds of projects for Microsoft and Amazon globally, he’s implementing a UK-based methodology called quantity surveying that could reduce construction costs by 30% or more.
Traditional cost estimation involves sending 2D PDFs through multiple parties—from cost estimators to general contractors to subcontractors—with each adding contingencies and markups. “You get your number back, and it’s one number,” Wilts explains.
The quantity surveying approach changes this model. Using Building Information Modeling (BIM), developers can calculate precise material quantities. These are then provided directly to subcontractors, who price only their materials, equipment, labor, overhead, and profit.
“With this open book approach and giving the quantities to the subs, you’re completely de-risking them, and you’re asking for pricing today so they don’t have to factor in inflation or labor increases or material cost increases,” Wilts explains. “This way you hold all of that contingency in one place, and you don’t have all of these pockets of contingency that you don’t even know about.”
The Woodlawn Central Model
Woodlawn Central serves as a testing ground for these new approaches. Located near the Obama Presidential Center and University of Chicago, the development centers around the Apostolic Church of God, which owns 12 acres and eight parking lots.
The project’s location at the 63rd Street Metra stop enables a transit-oriented development approach that reduces parking requirements, a significant cost savings. The recent elimination of parking requirements citywide provides additional flexibility.
“We are consolidating our parking for the entire development into one main garage, and we’re also leveraging that garage because we have a hotel and we’re right next to the Metra rail stop,” Wilts explains. The garage will serve multiple functions: park-and-ride for commuters, hotel guests, and church congregants on Sundays.
Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing
Rather than relying on traditional affordable housing financing like Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), Wilts is pursuing “naturally occurring affordable housing,” building at costs low enough to charge rents significantly below downtown rates without subsidies.
“We want to be able to move quickly and agilely to respond to market demands, create the types of units that are missing in the marketplace,” he explains. “It really all comes down to: can we build at a low enough cost per square foot to charge rents that the neighbors and the neighborhood would ideally like to see?”
This strategy becomes important as traditional funding mechanisms face uncertainty. “With what’s happening and the changes in Washington, LIHTC is up for grabs. HUD and the traditional way multifamily projects have been funded, they’re all changing. So there’s no longer certainty with any of those traditional paths.”
Technology and Supply Chain Innovation
Wilts is leveraging technology throughout the development process. In design and construction the Digital Masterplanning platform is being used in conjunction a full digital workflow leveraging ISO19650 BIM standards.
The quantity surveying methodology enables innovative supply chain management. “Once you have the quantities, let’s say, the toilets and the faucets and the sinks and the bathtubs, we can go to Kohler in Wisconsin and broker a deal, because we have five buildings over the next five years,” Wilts explains. This approach provides manufacturers with certainty while securing supply chain reliability.
Testing Multiple Approaches
To validate his methodology, Wilts is conducting parallel cost analyses using traditional estimation, quantity surveying, and modular construction. “We’re doing all three for a traditional build, but then we’re also doing quantity surveying and cost estimating for modular, so we’ll be able to look at all modalities and really be able to pull the trigger on what makes the most sense.”
Looking Forward
Wilts envisions his work extending beyond a single project to help revitalize Chicago’s construction industry. “What I’m really looking forward to is working with private sector developers and the universities and the different experts we have in the city to try to crack the code and get the city building again.”
His Digital Masterplanning platform, developed over seven years, is being enhanced with a new quantity surveying and cost management engine that could make these methodologies more widely accessible to developers.
The stakes extend beyond individual projects. As Wilts puts it: “Why can’t we get out of our own way to help ourselves? Everybody knows this is a problem. Everybody wants to help and create more housing.” His data-driven approach to development costs, combined with innovative financing and design strategies, offers a potential path forward for a city struggling to house its residents affordably.
For Chicago’s real estate industry, Woodlawn Central represents more than just another development, it’s a proof of concept for whether the city can build its way out of the housing crisis through innovation rather than subsidies.
