You have probably heard it a hundred times: people are fleeing New York State in droves. The headlines make it sound like a mass exodus, with moving trucks heading south to Florida and Texas around the clock. On the ground in Albany, New York, the story looks completely different — and it is catching many buyers off guard.
Instead of a market full of desperate sellers and empty streets, Albany is seeing something unexpected: people coming back. New arrivals who expected a quiet, affordable market are walking straight into bidding wars.
Who Is Moving to Albany
Brian Brosen, founding partner of The Capital Team at eXp Realty, has spent over two decades closing deals in the Capital District. Brosen hears the “everyone’s leaving New York” narrative constantly. He says it does not match what he sees every day.
People are returning from Texas, Florida, and California, drawn back by family ties, aging parents, and roots. Others are arriving for the first time, drawn by Albany’s growing tech sector, stable government employment base, and universities. Then there is a group Brosen describes as climate refugees — buyers from the Pacific Northwest and Southwest who have decided that New York State and New England are better positioned for the long term. Wildfires and related climate concerns are real factors in where some families are choosing to settle. “I have people coming back from Texas, Florida, and California,” he says.
Buyers Face Unexpected Competition
Many buyers arriving from larger, pricier markets, including Austin, Texas, Arizona, and the New York City metro area, expect Albany to be an easy deal. In some ways, it is. A $400,000 budget goes significantly further here than in most major metros. But more affordable does not mean easy to buy.
Buyers from competitive markets are discovering bidding wars they did not anticipate. A recent listing of Brosen’s tells the story clearly: a home priced at $260,000, well below the typical floor for that area, drew 11 offers in three days and sold $40,000 over asking. “Buyers are getting into bidding wars and realizing it’s not that easy,” he says. The inventory shortage is severe and long-standing. Regulatory delays have bottlenecked new construction for years, and Brosen has seen developments sit idle for 10 to 12 years between land purchase and groundbreaking. New York State is beginning to loosen some of those rules, but supply remains limited in the near term.
School Districts Drive Local Prices
One pricing signal that does not get enough attention in national housing coverage is the role of school districts in the Capital District. District boundaries function as their own micro-markets, and homes in the most desirable districts hold their value and move fast regardless of broader market conditions.
Buyers shopping in Albany who ignore school district lines are missing one of the most important factors driving local prices. According to Brosen, the strongest school districts remain insulated from broader market shifts. “The really, really good school districts — nothing’s going to change that,” he says.
What Is Driving Buyer and Seller Behavior
Buyer behavior across the Capital District is closely tied to interest rates. In the fall of 2025, the market briefly showed signs of shifting toward buyers, with fewer bidding wars and more contracts moving forward. The holidays slowed that momentum, and a dip in interest rates at the start of 2026 brought buyers back out. The seller’s market held.
Affordability pressures are adding another layer of complexity. Utility costs became a significant issue during the most recent winter season, with some households seeing electric bills nearly triple. Higher gas prices and general cost-of-living increases are making buyers more price-sensitive than they were two years ago. Sellers with properly priced homes are still moving quickly. Buyers who cannot compete in the purchase market are increasingly becoming renters.
Rental and Investment Opportunity
The same inventory constraints driving the purchase market are creating opportunity in Albany’s rental market. Single-family home rentals in particular have emerged as an area of strong demand, with competition fierce enough that some renters are offering above the listed monthly rent to secure a unit.
Single-family homes cover carrying costs and generate returns, while remaining easier to sell than multi-unit buildings if an owner needs to liquidate. For investors, multi-unit properties in Albany’s urban core remain attractive. Downtown Albany is the subject of a $425 million state development incentive targeting housing and redevelopment. Neighboring cities Troy and Schenectady are seeing similar energy, with opportunity concentrated on the fringes of downtown areas as development spreads outward. Brosen notes that individual investors and contractors are increasingly competing against corporate buyers who have begun entering the upstate New York market, a dynamic that was largely absent here until recently.
Market Outlook
Albany’s housing market is one of the more surprising stories in the country right now. While national narratives paint New York as a place people are leaving, the Capital District is quietly pulling people in from other states, from downstate, and from abroad. The inventory shortage shows no sign of easing soon, and demand from returning residents, climate-motivated movers, and first-time arrivals continues to build.
For buyers, the biggest risk is arriving with outdated assumptions. For sellers, the opportunity is real but depends on realistic pricing. “They’re learning that the market is not what they thought it was,” Brosen says.
About the Expert: Brian Brosen is a licensed associate broker and founding partner of The Capital Team at eXp Realty in Albany, NY, with more than two decades of experience in the Capital District. His practice focuses on residential sales, property management, and landlord-tenant services.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
